The medical test paradox, and redesigning Bayes' rule

延伸阅读 1

在视频设定的千人样本里，检测识别出 9 个真阳性，也给出 89 个假阳性。要回答一个阳性结果意味着什么，应在所有阳性中计数，而不是在所有患病者中计数。

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补充字幕原文 2

And then suppose that among the remainder without cancer, 89 get false positives, and 901 correctly get negative results.

So the probability that she's in the cancer group given the test result is 9 divided by 9 plus 89, which is approximately 1 in 11.