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Exponential growth and epidemics

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Further reading 1

How much does a successful demonstration establish? →A program gives the expected output. Between “it did” and “it will” lie the test distribution, formal assumptions and deployment context. Those boundaries are easy to miss under pressure to ship.This video helps answer · If two curves agree, can you tell the mechanisms apart?

Caption notes

Proportional daily additions yield exponential growth. Accounting for the remaining susceptible fraction changes the mechanism: an initially similar curve can bend later.

Creator’s caption track ↗
Original passages · 2
Exponential growth means that as you go from one day to the next, it involves multiplying by some constant.
Exponential growth and epidemics · ▶ 0:44–0:49
For a random shuffling model like this, that could mean including a factor like 1 minus the proportion of people in the world who are already infected.
Exponential growth and epidemics · ▶ 4:39–4:46

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