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Bayes theorem, the geometry of changing beliefs

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Further reading 1

How do you update on evidence—and choose what to ask next? →A test result and a Wordle clue both rule out possibilities. The crucial difference is whether you already know the result or still have to choose the question.This video helps answer · First remove the cases that do not fit the evidence

Caption notes

Represent prior proportions as areas and retain only people fitting a description. Evidence removes different fractions of each group; the relevant comparison is between the areas that remain.

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Original passages · 2
In the standard notation, this vertical bar means given that, as in we're restricting our view only to the possibilities where the evidence holds.
Bayes theorem, the geometry of changing beliefs · ▶ 5:10–5:18
I recognize I'm being a bit repetitive, but when you see evidence, the space of possibilities gets restricted, right?
Bayes theorem, the geometry of changing beliefs · ▶ 9:18–9:24

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